97% Probability
97% Probability by Rev. L. John Gable
April 4, 2021 (Easter Sunday)
I don’t know what kind of topics get discussed around your dinner tables, but given that my wife, Kristin, was a math teacher, with more than average frequency, our family finds itself talking about math problems. And given that we have spent the past several weeks immersed in March Madness I remember one particular story problem she gave us that had us all scratching our heads. If a 60% free throw shooter is in a one-and-one situation, which I hardly need to explain to any of you die-hard, basketball loving Hoosiers, but for the uninitiated, that means the player has to make the first free throw in order to have chance at the second, are they more likely to score zero, one or two points? If I lose you at any point in this sermon you can let your mind wander back to figuring this one out, but I’ll give you the answer so that we can move on. While the logical answer is one, the actual answer is zero. Odds have it that a 60% free throw shooter in a one-and-one situation won’t score at all. I can’t explain it, but I can prove it, or at least Kristin can.
Now, this kind of calculation is based on probability theory and, whether we are aware of it or not, we use it all the time. Economists use it to forecast consumer spending. Actuaries use it to calculate insurance premiums. Bookies use it to set odds on games. Using set formulas you can calculate the odds on nearly everything from winning the Publishers Clearinghouse Sweepstakes (not very good) to being struck by lightning (still not very likely but definitely not a good idea) to who will win the NCAA National Basketball Championships.
While probability theory is based on calculations using complex formulas, we use these kinds of probabilities and projections to help us determine our responses in different circumstances every day. When the Weather Channel tells us there is a 40% chance of rain, that is probability theory at work, so we ask ourselves, “Should I take an umbrella or not?” There is a 1 in 20 million chance of winning the lottery, so we ask ourselves, “Should I buy a ticket or not?” There is a 1 in 95 million chance of dying in a street car accident, so we ask, “Should I ride one or not?” Every day we use probability theory, in one way or another, typically by asking ourselves, consciously or sub-consciously, “Hmmm, what are the chances of that?”
Well, believe it or not, someone has applied probability theory to the central question of our faith and the underlying question of this day: Did Jesus Christ really rise from the dead on that first Easter morning? What are the chances of that? Dr. Richard Swinburne, professor of philosophy at Oxford University, “has proceeded to weigh evidence for and against the resurrection, assigning values to factors like probability that there is a God, the nature of Jesus’ behavior during His lifetime and the quality of witness testimony after His death.” Presenting his findings at a conference at Yale University, Professor Swinburne ran the numbers and using a probability formula known as Baye’s Theorem, determined, “Given e and k, h is true, if and only if, c is true, meaning, the probability of h given e and k is .97”
Translation: according to his calculations, the probability of Jesus actually rising from the dead on that first Easter morning is a whopping 97%! Not bad, I’d say. If there was a 97% chance of rain, I’d bring an umbrella; of winning the lottery, I’d buy a ticket; of getting killed in a street car accident, I’d walk.
Like other apologists who have gone before him Professor Swinburne is attempting to defend the claims of our faith by using sophisticated, logical arguments. We live in an age of reason and we like to think of ourselves as being reasonable people, so it is only natural that we don’t want our faith to appear to be unreasonable. While we will readily admit that there is much about our faith that is without proof, or rather is beyond proof in an empirical way, still we find comfort in knowing that there is hard evidence for what we believe, or at least that the odds are overwhelmingly in our favor.
Around the turn of the 20th century an English journalist, Frank Morison, himself a non-believer and skeptic, set out to prove that the story of Christ’s resurrection was nothing but a myth. However, his investigation into the event led him to just the opposite conclusion. He found the evidence and testimonies convincing, and ended up becoming a believer and writing what is considered a classic apologetic on the resurrection titled, Who Moved the Stone?. Another writer Thomas Arnold once called the resurrection, “The best attested fact in history”. While we may not be willing to go quite that far, we can find comfort in knowing that the essential claims of our faith, as improbable or as foolish as we spoke on Maundy Thursday evening as they may sound to so many, are not without evidence and good reason. According to Dr. Swinburne there is a 97% probability that Jesus really did rise from the dead. Yet meaning no disrespect to him or his complex calculations we are not really interested in probability, are we? While 97% makes for pretty good odds, our faith is grounded on certainty, not speculation.
In our Gospel lesson from John which Sarah/Sharon read for us at the beginning of our service this morning, we hear about that first Easter morning and it is very appropriate for us to ask, “What are the chances that this really did happen?” We don’t want our faith to be built on the shaky foundation of either repressed doubts or probability theory, but on the firm foundation of historical evidence, of reliable testimony and Biblical truth. So we look for and listen to those who were eye-witnesses to the event.
Ask Mary Magdalene as she walked to the tomb early that morning, “What are the chances you’ll find Jesus alive today?” and she’d say, “No way.” She had seen Him suffer and die only days before, and any hope of His still being alive was nowhere in her imagination. She was going to the tomb to finish preparing His body for burial. She was a realist, so when she saw that His body was missing she assumed the only logical thing: that someone had stolen it and who can blame her. It took a visitation of angels and an encounter with Jesus Himself to change her mind. So, running from the tomb that morning she didn’t say, “Chances are good He might be alive.” No, she ran screaming the Good News, “I have seen the Lord!” because she was absolutely convinced He was alive!
Hearing the news that the tomb was empty the disciples Peter and John ran there to see for themselves, perhaps out of skepticism as much as out of faith. Ask them, “What are the chances you think you are going to find Jesus alive?” and they’d have to say, “Slim to none”. Yet Scripture tells us when they got to the tomb they “saw and believed”. What they saw stopped them cold in their tracks, an undisturbed tomb and the linen cloths lying empty as though the body once contained within them had simply vaporized and vanished. They were convinced, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that a miracle had taken place. What they saw was not evidence based on a pre-conceived faith or a blind expectation, but on facts, hard, cold facts, that Jesus’ body had not been stolen, that He had not somehow awakened from slumber, but that He had miraculously been raised from the dead. What they saw was evidence enough to make them believe, not simply in an empty tomb, but in a risen Lord!
What are the chances of this really happening? Ask Mary and the disciples after this first Easter morning experience and their calculations go from an impossible zero percent, not just to Professor Swinburne’s highly probable 97%, but all the way to the absolute certainty of 100%! Peter, John, Mary, soon after the other disciples and then many other first-hand witnesses, came away with the unwavering conviction that Jesus was alive because they saw Him with their own eyes. This was for them incontrovertible proof and it can be for us as well.
The Gospels declare that God raised this Jesus from the dead and that His closest followers and friends were soon made aware that He really was alive, and out of that awareness, out of this resurrection experience, came the whole of the Christian faith and the growth and expansion of the Christian Church. While the exact details of the resurrection are shrouded in the mists of history, so are beyond our proof or disproof today, the resurrection experience and the resurrection conviction have persisted now for over 2000 years. This one tenet is the foundation of our faith and the starting point for every other claim we make about Jesus. As Paul writes in his letter to the Corinthians, “But in fact Christ has been raised from the dead, the first fruits of those who have died.” This event of the past is the basis for every hope we have for the future, including every hope we have for our own resurrection to new and eternal life.
Centuries before the coming of Christ, long before there was any firmly established hope or notion of the possibility, much less probability, of life after death, the Old Testament character Job wrote these words of prophecy and promise: “O that my words were written down! O that they were inscribed in a book! O that with an iron pen and with lead they were engraved on a rock forever! (So confident was Job in the veracity of his message that he wanted to make sure his word endured through the ages.) I know that My Redeemer lives and at the last He will stand upon the earth…then in my flesh I shall see God.” This was Job’s hope and it was fulfilled in Jesus Christ on that first Easter Day.
When the great scientist Michael Faraday lay dying, a man who some consider to be the greatest experimentalist ever to live for his work with electricity and magnetism, several journalists questioned him as to his speculations for a life after death. “Speculations!” he said, “I know nothing about speculations. I am resting on certainties.” This is the conviction with which Mary ran from the tomb on that first Easter morning, declaring, “He is alive!” and the Good News that we continue to proclaim today. He is alive and because He lives we shall live also. Friends, our faith is not based on probability but on assurance, not on speculation but on certainty.
I’m sure you’ve heard the contemporary Christian song sung by Nicole C. Mullen, titled Redeemer, based on this passage from Job. She repeats in the chorus, “I know my Redeemer lives. I know my Redeemer lives. Let all creation testify. Let this life within me cry. I know that my Redeemer lives.” And at one point she sings, “I know that I know that I know that I know that my Redeemer lives…I spoke with Him just this morning!”
What is the probability that Jesus really did rise from the dead? Prior to that first Easter morning the chances were “slim to none”. 2000 years later, after considering the evidence and crunching the numbers, Dr. Swinburne suggests that the odds improve considerably to 97% probability; yet even that leaves open the slight possibility that none of this is really true, so we must examine the evidence for ourselves. Each of us must give answer as to what we believe happened to Jesus on the first Easter morning for what we believe about the resurrection ultimately determines what we believe about Him. And what we believe about Him ultimately determines our destiny and eternity.
We can match Professor Swinburne’s 97% probability against Mary and Peter and John’s 100% certainty any day. With the first disciples, and with faithful believers in every age, we can in confidence say, “I know that I know that I know that I know, that my Redeemer lives”, and because He lives we shall live also.
To the glory of God the Father, Son and Holy Spirit. Amen.